Election Data & Methodology

Certified results and current rosters

Where a page presents a certified result, it links to the relevant source. The 2028 presidential map uses the 2024 Electoral College result published by the National Archives as its starting scenario. Current officeholder balances are snapshots; the Forecasts page identifies the roster sources and review dates used for its Senate, House, and governor summaries.

• Senate members and Class II seats: U.S. Senate roster and Class II list.
• House membership and vacancies: Office of the House Clerk member list and vacancies.
• Governor roster: National Governors Association.

The 2026 primary calendar follows the Federal Voting Assistance Program calendar, with the Arizona date checked against the Arizona Secretary of State. Dates and procedures can change; the state election office is the final source for current ballot information and certified results.

Historical governor archive

The governor archive covers 49 annual cycles from 1976 through 2024. Each year page groups states by the party recorded as winning that cycle’s governor race and shows the party balance across all 50 governorships after the cycle, including states that did not hold an election that year. It does not provide candidate vote totals or margins.

The bundled annual-party dataset references the corresponding Wikipedia gubernatorial-election summaries; each year page links to its year-specific reference. These are secondary references, not state-certified canvass records. Use the relevant state election office for an authoritative vote total. The current bundled data file was generated June 17, 2026; that timestamp is not a claim that every record was independently reverified on that date.

Race ratings, market prices, and maps

• The selected 2026 Senate race categories follow Sabato’s Crystal Ball. They are the source’s editorial assessment of seat competitiveness, not percentages or forecasts made by Path to Win. The page keeps a site-side snapshot; consult the source for its latest ratings.
• Market prices are retrieved from Polymarket and shown with the time they were read. Each contract is priced independently, so related prices need not add up to 100%. Prices move and are not certified outcomes.
• Interactive maps let visitors assign states or districts and see the resulting seat or electoral-vote count. Those assignments are scenarios, not official calls. The 2028 presidential map starts either from the certified 2024 result or from a blank map.

Corrections and questions

Source links are provided on the relevant data pages. If you find an error or a broken source, please contact Path to Win with the page URL and the source that supports the correction.