Election News
Where the markets moved
Every race we track, ranked by how far its price shifted over the last 30 days. The rest of this site shows where each race stands; this is the part that changed.
Prices read 6 Aug 2026, 11:23 UTC.
Wisconsin governor moved 38.0 points toward the Republicans
The Democratic contract went from 79.5% to 41.5%.
24 races repriced
Moves of at least 1 point. 11 other races held steady.
- −38.0Wisconsin governorDemocratic contract 79.5% → 41.5% · toward the Republicans
- +8.5Georgia governorDemocratic contract 50.5% → 59% · toward the Democrats
- −6.9New Hampshire governorDemocratic contract 21.8% → 14.9% · toward the Republicans
- −6.5Kansas governorDemocratic contract 29% → 22.5% · toward the Republicans
- +6.3Maine governorDemocratic contract 87.9% → 94.2% · toward the Democrats
- +4.5Iowa governorDemocratic contract 62.5% → 67% · toward the Democrats
- −4.3Wyoming governorDemocratic contract 9.1% → 4.8% · toward the Republicans
- −4.0Nevada governorDemocratic contract 56.5% → 52.5% · toward the Republicans
- +4.0New Mexico governorDemocratic contract 86% → 90% · toward the Democrats
- −3.7Arkansas governorDemocratic contract 5.4% → 1.7% · toward the Republicans
- +3.5New York governorDemocratic contract 89.5% → 93% · toward the Democrats
- −3.0Ohio governorDemocratic contract 48% → 45% · toward the Republicans
- −3.0Tennessee governorDemocratic contract 7.9% → 4.9% · toward the Republicans
- −2.5Oregon governorDemocratic contract 88% → 85.5% · toward the Republicans
- +2.3South Carolina governorDemocratic contract 6.5% → 8.8% · toward the Democrats
- −2.0Florida governorDemocratic contract 18% → 16% · toward the Republicans
- −2.0Oklahoma governorDemocratic contract 7% → 5% · toward the Republicans
- −2.0Rhode Island governorDemocratic contract 93.5% → 91.5% · toward the Republicans
- −1.5Nebraska governorDemocratic contract 17% → 15.5% · toward the Republicans
- +1.5Pennsylvania governorDemocratic contract 93.5% → 95% · toward the Democrats
- +1.02028 presidencyDemocratic contract 58.5% → 59.5% · toward the Democrats
- +1.0Arizona governorDemocratic contract 77.5% → 78.5% · toward the Democrats
- −1.0Alabama governorDemocratic contract 8% → 7% · toward the Republicans
- −1.0Connecticut governorDemocratic contract 94.5% → 93.5% · toward the Republicans
How this is built
Each race is tracked through its Democratic contract on Polymarket. The number is that contract’s price now minus its price at the start of the window, in percentage points, so a positive figure means the market moved toward the Democrats and a negative one toward the Republicans.
One side is quoted rather than both on purpose. The two parties trade as separate contracts, so combining them into a single margin would produce a number neither of them states. The sign carries the direction instead.
Nothing here is written or forecast. It is two prices and a subtraction, refreshed from Polymarket rather than stored, so it is current whenever you load it.